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Goldcorp Inc. updated its production and cost guidance on Monday evening, and the numbers were clear disappointments. Expected production for 2013 is now 2.55 to 2.8 million ounces, down from the prior forecast of 3.2 million (with a notably low target for the Penasquito mine). Cash costs are forecast at US$700 to US$750 per ounce on a co-product basis, well above the 2012 level of US$645 in ounce.


In addition, Goldcorp announced significant capital cost increases at its three key development projects. While it was no secret that the company was set to unveil higher costs, no one was happy to see that costs at the Cerro Negro project have jumped nearly 70% to US$1.35-billion.


But Goldcorp shares held steady Tuesday morning despite the disappointing news. Analysts noted that the share price has been under pressure in anticipation of an announcement like this, meaning it was largely priced in.


“With the guidance now in the public domain, we see the potential for investors to look beyond the current year and reflect on the fact that Goldcorp still has one of the best five-year production growth profiles among the senior gold producers and that while costs are higher than we had expected, the company should remain a below-average cost producer as the next generation of minesenter production over the next three years,” TD Securities analyst Greg Barnes wrote in a note.

 

He maintained a buy recommendation on Goldcorp, but lowered his price target to $50 a share (from $60). Analysts at CIBC World Markets and BMO Capital Markets also trimmed price targets while maintaining buy ratings. More than one analyst pointed out that Goldcorp shares trade roughly in line with other senior gold companies after the recent correction, if not a slight discount. The company has enjoyed a premium valuation to its peers in recent years, and they expect that the miner will reclaim it in the months ahead.

 

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